While drought conditions caused by El Niño have impacted South Africa’s agriculture sector in recent months, raising concerns about crops and food prices, the local industry boasts notable strengths and strategies that help maintain stability and resilience in difficult times, says Agri SA.
In a statement on Friday, issued by its Economics Centre of Excellence, it said South Africa had developed strong agricultural practices.
“Particularly, irrigation regimes assist in mitigating the impact of drought. Although the recent dry period has resulted in a projected decrease in total grain and oilseed production down by approximately 21% from the previous year, the reserves accumulated during previous favourable seasons serve as a buffer against shortages.”
Agri SA said that according to the latest data from government’s Crop Estimates Committee, the total grain and oilseeds production were estimated at 15.8 million tons, down 9% from last month and 21% lower than last season's harvest.
White and yellow maize harvests were estimated to be 6.3 million tons, down 25% year on year (y/y) and 6.9 million tons, down 13% y/y, respectively, placing the total maize production estimate at 13.2 million tons, down 20% y/y and the lowest in five years.
It said one of the key strengths of South Africa's agricultural sector was its ability to accurately measure metrics, such as areas planted, expected yields and any changes to these.
Such foresight allowed proactive risk mitigation strategies to be put in place, reducing the likelihood of being caught off guard by unfavourable conditions.
“Recent reports confirm the arrival of ships at Cape Town harbour carrying significant quantities of yellow maize, signalling a proactive response to potential shortages. Crop estimates indicate sufficient supply to meet domestic demand, with an excess of approximately one million tons of white maize available for export.
“While neighbouring countries are also affected by the drought and may need to import from South Africa, the free-market dynamics allow for efficient allocation and distribution of resources to mitigate the impact,” it said.
During a visit to Zambia last week, the UN’s recently-appointed Climate Crisis Coordinator, Reena Ghelani, and UNICEF’s Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa, Eva Kadilli, called for international solidarity and a concerted effort to support a humanitarian response in that country, which was facing a severe drought induced by El Niño at a time when it was still battling to recover from a historic cholera outbreak.
Zimbabwe last week declared a state of disaster due to the devastating drought that is sweeping across much of southern Africa. The declaration was not surprising in a region where the El Niño weather phenomenon has scorched crops and left millions of people in need of food assistance.
With regards to short-term concerns related to higher food prices, Agri SA said recent trends indicated a decline in food prices.
While grains may be impacted by the dry spell, other commodities such as vegetables and meat products might see further price declines.
“Food prices continued to decrease from 9.0% in November 2023 to 6.1% in February 2024, in line with levels last observed in March and April 2022. Global supply chains offer support, with favourable prices for commodities such as yellow maize available for importation in case of local supply shortages. This highlights the interconnected nature of the global food market and South Africa's ability to leverage international resources to address domestic challenges,” it said.
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