Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) on Thursday slammed claims made by the Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe) about the Census 2022 results not meeting standards as “unfounded and misleading”.
The CARe report, “The 2022 South Africa Census”, was published for the Medical Research Council, and released on Tuesday (July 9, 2024).
Among other claims, the report's authors, Tom Moultrie and Rob Dorrington of the University of Cape Town’s CARe, said:
– Indications that the population of 62.03 million revealed by the 2022 Census might be overstated by approximately one million people.
– An underestimate and implausible age profile of the numbers of migrants implied by the questions on migration in the census.
– Incoherent and implausible results at a sub-national level, with the incoherence escalating at increasingly fine levels of spatial disaggregation.
“We conclude that these difficulties render the census data collected unfit for purpose. We recommend that the results be used with extreme caution in planning and resource allocation until thorough investigations are made possible by Statistics South Africa,” they said.
StatsSA said it firmly denied the Centre for Actuarial Research’s claim that Census 2022 figures should be treated as estimates due to under-counting issues.
“This assertion overlooks the foundation of our census work. The numbers from the Census 2022 Report serve as counts for government planning and resource allocation every decade.
“The accuracy of these numbers is further validated by a review conducted by a group of local and international statistical experts, under the supervision of the Statistics Council. The Council has assured both the Minister in the Presidency and the Statistician-General that the Census 2022 data is indeed reliable,” it said.
StatsSA said in a statement it was dedicated to upholding standards of data accuracy ensured by quality checks at every stage of the census process from data collection to fieldwork monitoring.
It explained that the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) was a quality control measure consistently applied in all democratic censuses. This method helped detect and rectify any errors, ensuring the reliability of the data. (For details on the PES process refer to reports from 2011 and 2022 on the StatsSA Website (www.statssa.gov.za).
StatsSA said, “We acknowledge the technical input and collaborations that enhance demographic procedures in South Africa. However, it is important to note that the CARe report, which was prepared for the Medical Research Council, has excluded insights shared during engagements with authors and inaccurately presents the findings as estimates than actual counts.”
StatsSA said it had provided comprehensive feedback both orally and in written form to address the concerns outlined in the authors’ report.
“It is disconcerting that the authors published their findings without acknowledging the valuable insights and responses provided by StatsSA,” it said.
Furthermore, StatsSA said this misunderstanding was thoroughly explained in a report to researchers, illustrating that its methodologies adhere to standards established by the United Nations, which were utilised by 99 countries worldwide.
“StatsSA ensures that the census figures for population and housing in 2022 are based on a foundation that will withstand scrutiny over time. Our methods and statistical products are publicly available and published on our website. We caution against relying on statistics unless they clearly disclose their status or have been assessed using the South African Statistical Quality Assessment Framework (SASQAF),” it added.
Regarding census data dissemination
StatsSA said the upcoming phase of release of census products would include digital offerings, notably Provincial Profiles which were released in June.
“We expect to have in-depth reports focusing on various topics ready, by the end of July,” it added.
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