September could bring some more welcome relief at the fuel pumps, providing there are no further shocks in the volatile international oil market.
The latest daily snapshot from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows a fairly significant over-recovery has developed for both petrol and diesel.
This, if current trends persist until month-end, could translate into petrol price decreases in the region of 62 cents, give or take.
Diesel is looking poised for price cuts of between 53 cents (500ppm) and 77 cents (500ppm) according to the mid-month CEF data released on August 15.
A 62 cent decrease could bring petrol prices to just below where they were in January 2024, with 93 Unleaded receding to around R22.09 in Gauteng and 95 Unleaded to R21.70 if the above predictions materialise.
International oil prices have been erratic in the past weeks, with Brent Crude sinking to a near eight-month low in early August as fears of a US recession caused market jitters.
However oil prices have crept up in recent days, surpassing $80 (R1,440) per barrel on Monday after positive data out of the US showed slowing inflation, possibly pointing to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude had settled back at $79.70 at the time of writing on August 15.
Conversely these positive international sentiments have caused the South African rand to rally, with the local currency hitting its best level in weeks, trading around the $18 mark mid-month, down from its July average of R18.23.
Just how this see-saw transpires, and influences the fuel price equation, between now and the end of August, remains to be seen.
The positive fuel price outlook that we’re seeing at present could quickly turn negative if oil prices surge in the coming two weeks.
The next fuel price adjustment in South Africa will take place on Wednesday, September 4.
2024 has seen plenty of volatility on the local fuel price front, with petrol increasing by nearly R3 between January and May, before decreasing again in June, July and August.
IOL Motoring