Amazon rainforest could face ‘large-scale collapse’ by 2050, study warns

The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the "lungs of the Earth," stands on the brink of a dire future, according to a recent study published in Nature.

Lead author Bernardo Flores and his team warn that a convergence of human-induced stressors, including global warming and deforestation, could propel the Amazon towards a large-scale collapse as early as 2050.

"We are approaching a potential large-scale tipping point, and we may be closer (both at local scales and across the whole system) than we previously thought," said lead author Bernardo Flores, of the Federal University of Santa Catarina, in Florianopolis, Brazil.

Utilising data from computer models and historical observations, researchers identified five key stressors – global warming, rainfall patterns, dry season length, and deforestation – and assessed their individual thresholds for triggering ecosystem shifts.

The alarming findings came from the combination of these stressors, which could create a tipping point where even minor disturbances lead to irreversible ecological damage.

The study predicts that by 2050, somewhere between 10% to 47% of the Amazon rainforest could face compounding stresses, potentially triggering unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbating regional climate change.

This grim scenario threatens not only the biodiversity and ecological integrity of the rainforest but also its crucial role as a carbon sink.

The Amazon's vast expanse of trees serves as a vital carbon sink, regulating global climate patterns.

However, with increased deforestation and climate change-induced disturbances, the forest risks releasing more carbon than it absorbs, amplifying the effects of climate change worldwide.

Dr. Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, a co-author of the study, warns of the potential for self-reinforced forest loss, where the Amazon's ability to recover is compromised by escalating environmental pressures.

IOL Environment