Shannon Ebrahim
Those emigrating to distant shores in the wake of recent unrest in the country might want to think twice given the latest UN report from the Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Those who perceive that the grass is greener on the other side might want to consider the warnings of extreme weather patterns in the next decade or two.
Scientists are predicting extreme cold conditions in Europe and North America, as well as much wetter conditions in the North, which is not good news for those who already find rainy Britain dreary.
It is hard to imagine Northern US and Canada being much colder than they already are, when current temperatures can reach minus 40 degrees celsius with the wind chill in mid-winter.
For the sake of our northern brothers and sisters, one hopes that they never have failing power stations, or ice storms that knock out the electricity grids in record freezing temperatures, as happened a few years ago across the Canadian province of Ontario, leaving millions of residents without internal heating in the deluge of snow and ice.
Add to these calamities the soaring summer temperatures, where in this year alone many cities experienced the hottest temperatures on record. Europeans and North Americans are not used to summer temperatures of 42 or 46 degrees celsius, and many have spent their short lived summer months indoors as the heatwaves have been too excessive.
Whether it is Miami, Toronto, Madrid, Athens, Tokyo, or Shanghai, scientists are predicting heat waves in the coming years like we have never seen before. With the rising temperatures will come more frequent hurricanes, especially in parts of the US, Canada, the Carribean, China, Japan, Australia and elsewhere. We have already witnessed the devastating wildfires engulfing parts of Australia, the US, Greece, Turkey, and this is just the beginning of what is an emerging pattern.
That does not mean that here in the southern hemisphere we will escape the ravages of climate change - far from it. But what is becoming increasingly evident is that life in the more developed north may not be the promised land in future decades that many have perceived it to be.
One of the greatest threats we are likely to face in the global south is the shortage of water, as climate change disrupts rainfall patterns resulting in devastating droughts, with catastrophic effects on food production and food security. As many analysts have predicted, future wars will be fought over water, and the tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are just the beginning.
Cyclones and unprecedented flooding also pose monumental threats to our human security.
The most alarming finding of the latest UN report on climate change is that climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points. There appears to be a loss of stability of currents that researchers refer to as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. AMOC is part of a large system of ocean currents known as the Gulf Stream, that transports warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic.
The AMOC system influences the weather worldwide, and global warming has increased the instability of currents, leading scientists to believe we may be close to an AMOC tipping point. Currents are at their slowest point in 1600 years, and we are faced with a rise in global sea levels.
If AMOC collapses, all our worst nightmares will be realised, and many will fear that the end of the world as we know it will be upon us.
Rising sea levels in Eastern North America will endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets. A significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is already on the brink, and the Amazon rainforest is emitting more CO2 than it absorbs. In April this year the UN already warned that the world is on the verge of a climate crisis abyss, and extremely urgent action needs to be taken by governments around the world.
The only way to stave off this seeming eventuality and avoid the worst catastrophes, is to hold the increase in global temperatures down to 1.5C. Scientists believe that the nearing apocalypse is avoidable and there is still a chance of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees.
This largely depends on global political will, and this absolute necessity will be the main topic discussed at the upcoming climate change conference in Glasgow in November. What we all need to realise is that global warming presents an existential threat to civilisation, and without grass roots and sustained pressure on governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we are going to lose our planet.
* Shannon Ebrahim is Group Foreign Editor