Semigration is fuelled by a variety of factors, including the search for a better quality of life, higher security, and efficient municipal service delivery; but it is the hunt for employment that appears to be pushing people towards certain provinces in the country.
Statistics from Lightstone reveal that Gauteng, the Western Cape, and North West province have recorded surges in their population growths from 2011 to 2022, and this is being attributed to better prospects of finding employment.
The three provinces have recorded population growths of 31%, 24%, and 20% respectively, and while, in some cases, people are moving to them for various lifestyle changes, Hayley Ivins-Downes, head of digital at Lightstone Property, says the imbalance mostly suggests that people are moving to provinces where there is a greater perceived prospect of work.
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“The movement of job seekers to Gauteng and Western Cape is well documented – Gauteng is the country’s economic and political hub while Western Cape has a growing reputation as the country’s best run province and is increasingly attractive to semigrants and those who can work remotely.”
At the other end of the scale, the Eastern Cape has shown the lowest population growth at only 2%. This is followed by the Free State (7%), Limpopo (10%), KZN (12%) and Northern Cape (14%).
Poor economic prospects, she says, have affected these provinces, and the steady flow of people to Gauteng, the Western Cape, and North West is evidence of this.
The national average for recorded population increases in the past 11 years is 17%, and Mpumalanga has been in step with this figure, data shows.
Population growth 2011 to 2022
Lightstone also states that young people under the age of 18 make up the largest age band in all provinces, while those aged 18 to 30 are the second biggest population group in all provinces except Gauteng, where the 30- to 40-year-old age group is the second highest.
In fact, Ivins-Downes says young people make up just 28% in Gauteng, the province whose population is growing most strongly in percentage terms ahead of the national average. In total, young people under the age of 30 account for 48% of Gauteng’s population, while the over 60s make up 7.5%. This means that the most economically productive 30 to 60 age group accounts for 44.5% of people in the province.
“This is significantly different in Limpopo, where young people account for 39% of the population, and this rises to 61% if under- 30s are added. Over 60s make up around 8.5%, which leaves just more than 30% in the most economically productive 30 to 60 age group – nearly 15% less than in Gauteng.”
By using Gauteng and Limpopo as proxies for the nine provinces, she suggests the economically stronger provinces have greater numbers in the middle ages, while the economically weaker provinces have proportionately more younger and older people – and less of those in the most productive economic years.
Age distribution by province
Cost of renting a home
Meanwhile, when it come to the cost of renting a home, the Payprop Rental Index for Q1 2023 reveals that the Northern Cape – which has experienced another quarter of rapid rental growth, could soon challenge the Western Cape as South Africa’s most expensive province for renters.
For four consecutive quarters, the Northern Cape has had the nation’s fastest growth, says Johette Smuts, head of data and analytics at PayProp. Over the first three months of this year, the provinces reached an average rent of R9 248, up from R8 962 in the last quarter of 2022. Year-on-year, rents increased by an “impressive 10.2%”.
For now though, the Western Cape is still the most expensive province in which to rent a home, with an average rent of R9 872, up from R9 737 the previous quarter. Year-on-year, rents in the province grew by an above-average 5%.
“If above-average growth continues in the Western Cape, rents could well reach five figures during the course of the year. Despite that, if the Northern Cape continues to grow at the pace it has for the last four quarters, the Western Cape might soon be challenged for the top spot,” Smuts says.