The ANC succession battle is heating up, with alliances forming and factions emerging as ambitious officials jockey to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Despite denials from ANC leadership, saying it too early to entertain the succession battle, the power struggle is already under way as to who will succeed Ramaphosa when the party goes into its 56 th elective conference in 2027.
It remains to be seen who Ramaphosa himself prefers as he would not be drawn out to comment. Sources close to the party have hinted that he is in favour of minister in the presidency and close ally Khumbudzo Ntshaveni.
The party’s secretary general Fikile Mbalula, who seems to have secured alliances with provincial secretaries and is eyeing the top spot.
Deputy President, Paul Mashatile, who is seeking the backing of Gauteng provincial chairperson and Premier Panyaza Lesufi is also looking to ascend to the presidency.
Other potential candidates, while not explicitly mentioned, but are likely to throw their hats into the ring are former health minister Zweli Mkhize and the party's current chairperson Gwede Mantashe.
This week during the ANC’s celebration of the first 100 days of the Government National (GN U)Mashatile and first deputy-secretary Nomvula Mokonyane denied factions were brewing, with Mashatile stating it was too early for succession talks.
However, a public spat between Mbalula and Lesufi suggests otherwise. Mbalula warned Lesufi against campaigning against him, sparking tensions within the party.
“The conference is in 2027, so it’s three years. I’d say it’s too early to talk about who is going to be president. Remember at the moment we are busy rebuilding branches. A lot of our branches are going to general meetings and regional conferences . After that we are going to have provincial conferences. Those are the people that will start to say who they want to lead. So I think we should not rush.
“Often this thing of contestation defocusses us. We are focussed on important things right now leading the GNU,” Mashatile said.
This is not the ANC's first leadership struggle. Previous succession battles have been marked by factional fights and power struggles, as seen in the 2017 leadership race between Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
GNU negotiations with the DA have become entangled with the ANC's internal power struggle.
The DA's fluctuating demands for Cabinet positions have caused friction, while Mantashe's strategic moves aim to reintroduce uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) into the talks.
Mbalula and Lesufi fallout stem from Lesufi’s refusal to work with the DA in Gauteng fuelling more tensions within the party and the succession battle.
Mbalula has expressed concerns over aligning with MK and the EFF, threats to his own leadership ambitions.
Speaking to the Saturday Star yesterday political analyst and associate Professor attached to the North West University, Dr John Molepo, tsaid the gloves were off for the party’s 2027 ANC conference.
“Don't be surprised in the coming months that any person aligned to Panyaza (Lesufi) could be charged because Mbalula is running a critical office which he could use to advance his cause (being president).
“But this also has a dire effect in dividing the ANC particularly if these fights are going to be so regular… If they find themselves doing this regularly it will cripple the organisation,” Molepo said.
He added that the ANC was still going to go through tough times because of their internal fights based on the succession battle.
“You can see how the Youth League is already taking sides in terms of how they voice issues so you are likely to see people aligning themselves secretly…Also because the presidency is open you can expect a third faction,” he said.
Saturday Star