The odds of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur being relegated from the Premier League have drastically shortened over the last two months following a dreadful run of form for both teams.
It’s still very much a long shot, with United and Spurs around the 50/1 mark to finish in the bottom three. The likes of Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town remain the bookies’ favourites to go down, with Everton and Wolves also in that mix.
United are 10 points ahead of 18th-placed Ipswich, while Spurs are just eight points from the drop. But their odds are higher because they are deemed to have the quality to get out of their respective slumps and move up the table.
Also, United, for instance, have won just under 40% of their matches this season. If they continue on this path they should comfortably get to the 40-point mark, which is normally the goal for most teams fighting the drop. Spurs, too, should be fine if they can maintain their current overall win percentage.
Relegation form
However, the two teams have been way below that average in their last 10 matches, which has not only seen them lose ground in the race for Europe, but also being pulled closer to the strugglers at the bottom.
Over the last 10 matches United’s win percentage is 30%, as they have won just three of their last 10 outings, while drawing one and losing six matches.
Spurs are even worse. They have dropped to 15th in the table after one win in their last 10 matches. They managed two draws during that time to go with seven defeats.
No doubt, that is relegation form.
But are they too big to go down? The answer is no.
Big guns who have suffered relegation
There is a history of big teams who have suffered relegation in the Premier League era.
Blackburn Rovers got relegated four years after winning the Premier League in the 1998-99 season. West Ham shockingly went down with players such as Paolo Di Canio, Joe Cole, Michael Carrick and Jermain Defoe, while Newcastle United’s fans had to endure a rollercoaster ride in and out of the Championship in the 2000s.
United were last relegated 50 years ago from the top-flight in the 1973-74 season when they finished in 21st place, with just 32 points to their name.
The Red Devils managed to bounce back immediately the next season, winning promotion to the top-flight in 1975 as champions.
United’s worst points return in the Premier League, which was formed in 1992, was in the 2021-22 season under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer when they managed just 58 points from their 38 games.
What's gone wrong?
Manager Rubin Amorim, who took over from Erik ten Hag earlier this season, is on course to smash that record if they aren’t careful. His players are currently struggling to adapt to his 3-5-3 formation, which is very different to the 4-3-3 formation Ten Hag used.
Tottenham have suffered the worst injury crisis in the history of the club, with 10 first-team players currently injured. Manager Ange Postecoglou’s resources are limited and he has basically had to play the same team every third day during this hectic period.
The last time they were relegated from the top-flight was in the 1976-77 season, but Tottenham’s lowest finish in the Premier League is 14th.
On current form, it’s not inconceivable that one of United or Tottenham could end up in the bottom three. Stranger things have certainly happened.
Hold on Spurs and United fans, it could be a bumpy ride towards the end of the season.
@JohnGoliath82