By: Tukmen Terzi
Libya is on the verge of falling into another political crisis since the Tobruk based House of Representatives (HOR) appointed former interior minister Fathi Bashagha as the country’s next prime minister.
The move last week (February 10) aimed at replacing Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba, who has served as head of the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for just over a year, comes following al-Dabaiba's failure to call fresh elections.
Dabaiba has refused to recognise Bashagha, insisting that he can only hand over power to a nationally elected government.
The Turkish government finds itself now in a dilemma as both Dabaiba and Bashagha, who have Turkish names, have close ties with Ankara.
Moreover, Turkey’s rival authorities within the state each have a different approach to Ankara’s Libya policy.
Tension remains high in Tripoli as Dabaiba supporters moved to the city.
Turkey has undoubtedly become a permanent power in Libya, as a result of its military assistance to the UN-recognized GNA during the early months of 2020.
Khalifa Haftar’s Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), which was supported by Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France failed to take Tripoli in a military offensive and eventually lost significant territory. It does still control the most territory in the war-torn North African country.
Ankara has since then remained involved Libya and currently has hundreds of soldiers and thousands of Syrian fighters stationed in the country in support of the GNA.
There are predominantly three groups within Turkey that have great interests in the affairs of Libya. These are Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s secular military establishment, and Turkey’s mega construction firms.
Over the past four decades, Libya has remained a key market for Turkish exporters and especially the Turkish construction sector which first began its international experience during the 1970s when strongman Muammar Gaddafi was still firmly in control of Libya.
The Turkish business sector is intent on recovering billions of dollars’ worth of losses since Gaddafi was deposed in 2011.
The second authority is Turkey’s military establishment, which created the Maritime Boundary Treaty that was signed by Turkey and the GNA in November 2019 in order to establish an Exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea.
Libya’s LNA, the European Union, the USA and many other regional powers opposed the agreement but UN registered the Turkey-Libya deal on the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction in the Mediterranean on October 2020.
Despite Erdogan’s recent control over the military, Turkey’s secular Generals still see themselves as the guardians of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s republican regime, and there is a degree of nostalgia linked to Libya for them as the founder of the Turkish Republic, Ataturk fought in Libya against the Italians in 1912.
Erdogan’s Islamist regime holds a much greater interest in Libya as Qatar backs Turkey in Libya, as a result Erdogan sends thousands of Syrian Jihadists to Libya.
Turkey is a unique country and is located very strategically between three continents.
Historically there have always been various powers competing against each other within Turkey, hence at present Turkey does not have one official Libya policy but various powerhouses competing for their own interests in Libya.
Erdogan’s Islamist government does not necessarily prioritise Turco-Libyans in their military strategies, and the focus remains predominantly on Muslim Brotherhood members.
Interestingly, over 1.5 million people in Libya, especially in Misrata, the city that rose up in revolt against Gaddafi's four-decade rule, regard themselves as Ottoman Turkish descendants.
The Erdogan government’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya has been a point of great confusion for Turco-Libyans recently.
The Ottomans conquered Libya in 1551 and during the three centuries over which Turks settled in Libya, they married local women.
During Gaddafi’s rule, however, these Turkish descendants were kept in limited positions of power in the state but following his death, some of the Turco-Libyans founded the ‘The Libyan Kouloughlis Association in 2015. The term “Kouloughlis” (from Turkish Kuloğlu) translates to ‘sons of servants’, describing the offspring of Ottoman soldiers in Libya.
But today Turco-Libyans are not on the same political side as Erdogan, with many of them criticising Turkey’s Libya policy.
“We are utterly at odds with the type of individuals with whom Turkey collaborates. The Turkish government works only with men of money and influence. It has not engaged with the leading figures of our community. But when Hafter targets the Turkish government, we are the only community that would defend Turkey,” an official from the Kouloughlis Association stated, criticizing AKP’s policies in Libya, according to an Al Monitor report.
Egypt, Greece, and France all strongly oppose Turkey’s military presence in Libya while the UN and the European Union have warned Turkey to obey their arms embargo in Libya.
Russia has also been keeping a close eye on Turkey’s military activities in the North African country as Moscow also keeps paramilitary groups there.
Ankara has been trying to gain control over Libya’s al-Watiya Airbase and wants to build a permanent naval base in Western Libya.
Turkey has undoubtedly taken advantage of the ousting of the Arab nationalist Gaddafi by trying hard to increase its influence in the war-torn country through the Turco-Libyan population and by siding with the Qatari backed Muslim Brotherhood.
The African Union has repeatedly warned all foreign forces, including Turkey to leave Libya.
But major Western countries including Britain, Germany and USA tolerate Ankara’s military presence in Libya to counter Russia’s armed groups in the North African country.
Erdogan’s government is taking advantage of the chaos in Libya to increase its military presence in the country and to control the energy transfers in the Mediterranean Sea as well as by re-establishing a strong Turkish presence in North Africa where the Ottomans lost out to the Western colonisers a little over a century ago.
*Tukmen Terzi is a Turkish Journalist based in South Africa