The Citrus Growers of Southern Africa (CGA) have released a mixed outlook for citrus exports in 2025, highlighting expected increases in orange and grapefruit exports, while lemon exports are predicted to take a downturn.

This nuanced forecast reflects a careful analysis of current agricultural conditions and market demands, as revealed by CGA chairman, Gerrit van der Merwe, during a recent industry briefing.

Van der Merwe on Tuesday said that all available data projected exports that were in line with the five-year average, which means there will be sufficient fruit for global markets.

"The outlook suggests no oversupply or undersupply. Overall, the quality of the fruit for 2025 looks to be excellent. The breakdown of various variety estimates indicates a balanced season ahead," he said.

"The current prediction is that 32.9 million 15kg cartons of lemons will be exported to key markets, which represents a 5% decrease from last year. Estimates for citrus-producing regions, the Sundays River Valley, Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal), Boland, and Patensie are all down, but Hoedspruit is estimated to increase its lemon production."

Van der Merwe added that early lemons have already started to be sent to overseas markets, especially to the Middle East, Russia, and Canada.

He said that figures for Navel and Valencia oranges are expected to be up this year.

“Predictions show a 5% increase in export volume for Navel oranges, at 26.1 million 15kg cartons available for packing. The Orange focus group has, for the first time, split estimates into Early/Mid Navels (11.34 million cartons) and Late Navels (14.75 million cartons) to improve tracking," he said.

"Last year, unusual weather events such as floods in the Western Cape and frost in Limpopo affected Navel exports, but, weather-permitting, volumes are expected to improve in 2025."

Van der Merwe added that, after four years of slight declines in Valencia orange figures, exports are likely to improve in 2025. “An increase on 2024 figures of 6% to 52 million 15kg cartons is projected. The possible impact of juicing prices on this figure is not yet quantifiable. Last year, unusually high local processing prices suppressed exports of Valencia oranges.”

Van der Merwe said that grapefruit exports were also predicted to increase. He added that the Satsuma season was likely to again, as in 2024, close around the 1.8 million 15kg cartons mark.

"The Nova season shows a slight 2% decrease to 4.5 million 15kg cartons. The third early mandarin variety, Clementines, presents a solid increase of 10%, with exports expected to increase to 5.4 million 15kg cartons," he said.

"Long-term projections still show that, if all role-players work together to address challenges, the industry can reach its target of exporting 260 million cartons by 2032, and in the process create 100,000 new jobs."

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said that they were encouraged to see that South Africa’s citrus exports will remain robust in 2025.

"The industry has gone through challenging times in the recent past, and they are positive that the better export prospects and reasonably better prices will help improve the financial conditions of the sector," Sihlobo said.

"The citrus industry is the leading agricultural export product in South Africa and is responsible for over 100 000 jobs in rural South Africa. What is key going forward is a continuous focus on improving the roads, rail, and ports efficiency. The government and private sector should lead the way on this."

Sihlobo added that the industry also needed collaborative efforts in improving rural safety.

"Key for the industry’s growth prospects is also a continuous effort in opening up export markets, mainly within BRICS – China and India, where we should expand our access. We must also work to retain the access we have in the EU and other regions of the world," he said.

Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said that the export estimates by the CGA reflected stable growth and underline the resilience of South Africa’s citrus industry.

"This is undoubtedly positive news for growers and the broader agricultural sector. However, achieving these targets fundamentally depends on urgently addressing infrastructure constraints, particularly port and rail logistics," Rossouw said.

"Efficient ports and logistics infrastructure are critical not only for realising export potential but also for maintaining South Africa's global competitiveness."

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