South Africa's R498bn wind power revolution: a 2024 industry analysis

By Wangari MuchirI and Niveshen Govender

South Africa is on the brink of a renewable energy revolution, with wind power positioned at the heart of this transformation. As the country progresses with power sector reforms and pivotal policy shifts, wind energy is no longer seen merely as an alternative; it is now integral to South Africa’s energy future.

Reflecting on 2024, South Africa has made remarkable strides in transformative policy and regulatory developments. These achievements are the result of collaborative efforts that have been a hallmark of the country's electricity sector in recent years.

A key driver of this transformation has been policy advocacy and industry collaboration, with the South African Wind Energy Association (Sawea) playing a central role in influencing legislative advancements. Notable among these are the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERAA) and the upcoming iteration of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2024).

These reforms lay the groundwork for a robust, investor-friendly wind energy sector that will generate employment, boost local manufacturing, and foster industrial growth. As momentum builds, now is the time to unlock the full potential of wind energy - not just to power homes and industries, but to drive economic growth, promote social equity, and ensure long-term sustainability.

Transforming the Wind Energy Landscape Through Sector Reforms:

Building on past successes, such as the launch of the first IRP in 2010 and the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), strengthening policy and regulatory frameworks will unlock further investment in wind energy.

A major advancement in South Africa's power sector reform was the passing of the ERAA. Signed into law in August 2024 and effective from January 2025, the ERAA establishes a competitive wholesale electricity market platform and an independent Transmission System Operator (TSO). This is expected to transform power production, trade, and grid operations, while also accelerating licensing and regulatory approvals and fostering investment in grid expansion—key to developing and connecting wind farms.

The restructuring of Eskom, as envisioned in the 1998 Energy White Paper, also made significant progress in 2024. The establishment of the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) is a crucial step in Eskom’s transformation.

The NTCSA will handle key functions of the TSO during the transition to a wholesale electricity market. Moreover, the introduction of Independent Transmission Projects (ITPs) is a positive move toward encouraging private sector participation in transmission development under the newly crafted Transmission Development Plan (TDP 2025–2037).

Advancing the Energy Mix:

Wind energy continues to lead South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon, renewable energy future. With over 3.5 GW of installed capacity from 37 wind power plants, contributing over 46 480 GWh annually, wind energy plays a vital role in the country’s energy security.

The government is set to release the updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2024) in early 2025. According to modelling presented by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, wind energy is slated to contribute between 69 and 76 GW of new capacity by 2050. This presents significant opportunities for investment, industrialization, and job creation.

Since the inception of the REIPPPP in 2011, the program has been pivotal in integrating renewable energy into South Africa’s electricity mix. Through 34 wind energy projects, REIPPPP has contracted 3.5 GW of capacity, strengthening energy security and advancing the just energy transition.While challenges remain, such as transmission congestion, REIPPPP has been a crucial policy initiative, facilitating private sector participation in the renewable energy market and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

REIPPPP has attracted over R250 billion in investment, with 21 wind projects in the pipeline, representing 2.5 GW of capacity. The momentum is expected to continue, but addressing structural challenges will be necessary to restore market confidence.

In line with South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET) framework, the government aims to add 6 GW of renewable capacity to the grid between 2023 and 2027. Total investments in wind, solar, and energy storage are projected at R498 billion over the five-year period.

For over a decade, Sawea has been a driving force behind the wind energy sector in South Africa. The 13th Annual Windaba Conference & Exhibition, hosted in Cape Town and endorsed by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), continues to serve as the premier gathering for industry leaders, policymakers, and global experts. Under the patronage of South Africa’s Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Windaba fosters essential discussions on sector developments, challenges, and opportunities.

In March 2025, Sawea, alongside GWEC, hosted a CEO Breakfast Roundtable for Policy and Industry leaders in South Africa, coinciding with the 17th Africa Energy Indaba in Cape Town. This exclusive event brought together policymakers and private sector stakeholders to explore the impact of unfolding policy-driven power sector reforms on the country’s renewable energy market.

One thing that stood out from the engagement was that, as government continues to implement power sector reforms, there is a need to align ongoing reforms with industryneeds. Repositioning REIPPPP, ensuring grid availability and access, and rethinking funding instruments are central considerations as the industry continues to navigate the changing energy landscape.

Wind Power’s Broader Impact:

Beyond energy security, wind power is a catalyst for economic growth, industrial development, and job creation. Investments in wind energy stimulate domestic industries, with the establishment of local wind turbine manufacturing facilities fostering technological advancement and reducing reliance on imports.

The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan  outlines a strategic framework to drive industrialization, expand employment, and localize manufacturing within the renewable energy sector. By focusing on technology transfer, skills development, and workforce training, South Africa can strengthen its wind energy industry and ensure long-term sustainability.

The wind industry’s social impact is evident, with over R898 million invested in socio-economic development initiatives by 2022. Sawea’s 2023 Community Engagement Handbook has further strengthened collaboration between developers and local communities, ensuring transparency and shared benefits from wind energy projects.

South Africa’s vast wind resources, both onshore and offshore, present significant opportunities for growth. While onshore wind farms dominate, the potential for offshore wind is also substantial. A 2022 feasibility report by CSIR estimated that South Africa could generate up to 44.52 TWh annually from shallow-water wind farms, and an astonishing 2,387.08 TWh from deep-water installations - equivalent to eight times the country’s total electricity demand.

Offshore wind remains a long-term prospect but has attracted growing investor interest. For example, Hexicon AB, in partnership with Genesis Eco-Energy Developments, is planning an 800 MW offshore wind farm off the coast of Richards Bay, marking a significant milestone in South Africa’s energy transition.

The Road Ahead:

As South Africa enters its second decade of wind energy development, the progress made in 2024 serves as a clear indicator of the sector’s transformative potential. Through continued policy advocacy, industry collaboration, and strategic investments, South Africa is poised to lead Africa’s transition to a renewable energy future - driving economic growth, energy security, and sustainability.

Wangari Muchiri, Africa Director at Global Wind Energy Council and Niveshen Govender, the CEO of South African Wind Energy Association.

BUSINESS REPORT