Will Norris be able to take it all the way in Vegas?

Lando Norris arrived in Las Vegas with the confidence of a championship leader, but his qualifying performance on Friday night elevated that confidence into a wave of momentum.

The McLaren driver delivered a commanding lap in wet conditions to claim his third consecutive pole position, stamping his authority on a weekend that has already tested the grid’s bravest.

His pole time of 1:47.934 came during a session defined by standing water, sliding cars and moments of pure instinct. The rain, which had caught most teams off-guard, reshaped the entire dynamic of the qualifying round and rewarded drivers who could feel out the grip when it barely existed.

Norris held his nerve and mastered the evolving track just when it mattered, but he will know better than anyone that yesterday’s achievement is only half the job.

Behind him, the top five carries all the ingredients for a chaotic and potentially championship-shaping race. Max Verstappen lines up second, just over three tenths behind Norris, and the Dutchman’s presence is impossible to ignore.

Carlos Sainz produced one of the biggest surprises of the evening by placing his Williams in P3, ahead of George Russell in the Mercedes.

Norris’s teammate and title rival Oscar Piastri starts fifth, frustrated after being held up by a yellow flag but still firmly in the mix.

That mix is volatile, especially with Verstappen starting alongside Norris. The long run into Turn 1 is certain to be the flashpoint in the opening segment of the race.

Verstappen is not one to sit back and wait, and with the Las Vegas circuit offering a wide braking zone into the opening corner, the probability of a Turn 1 divebomb is all but certainty.

Norris will have to be perfect off the line, perfect under braking and perfect in reading Verstappen’s intentions. One moment of hesitation could swing the race instantly. Conditions added another layer of unpredictability.

The wet qualifying session hinted at what could come on Sunday. Even if the race begins dry, the surface will remain low-grip, and any late drops of rain will turn the track into a lottery.

Both McLarens looked comfortable in the tricky conditions, especially with tyre warm-up, while Red Bull showed their usual strength in stability and race pace.

If the track begins to dry mid-race, the crossover to slicks could become the decisive moment. Strategically, both teams have distinct paths they may take.

McLaren will prioritise track position because Norris leads the championship, and a clean, controlled one-stop race on Soft-to-Hard tyres suits them perfectly.

Their biggest concern is covering the Red Bull undercut. Piastri may even be used as a tactical offset to disrupt Verstappen’s windows. But using Piastri as a pond will all but crush his title hopes moving forward, especially if Norris takes the win and increases his point lead. 

Red Bull, meanwhile, will be aggressive. Verstappen is likely to attack early, perhaps even pitting before McLaren to force their hand. If a Safety Car appears at the right moment, the advantage swings sharply to him.

Red Bull’s race pace and tyre life remain their biggest weapons. Norris has the advantage now but Vegas is a place where nothing is guaranteed, especially with Verstappen behind you.