Following five consecutive decreases, with petrol and diesel now at their lowest levels since February 2022, fuel prices are set to increase again in November.

Thankfully the price hikes should be relatively modest, with the latest data from the Central Energy Fund suggesting an increase of around 30 cents for 95 Unleaded petrol and 18 cents for 93 Unleaded. This follows a R1.14 decrease in October.

Diesel prices are looking likely to rise by about 23 cents in the case of 500ppm and 22 cents for the cleaner 50ppm, but keep in mind that the outlook for both fuel types could still change in the coming week.

The official petrol and diesel prices for November will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy early next week ahead of coming into effect on Wednesday, November 6.

At this stage the risk remains on the downside for further extensions of the current under-recovery as Brent Crude oil prices tumbled by 5% on Monday, to settle just below $73 per barrel, from $76 on Friday, after Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran over the weekend were less severe than anticipated and did not include any energy facilities.

Oil has been trading around the $74 mark for most of October, slightly higher than the $72 average seen in the previous month. The rand, at $17.66 to the US Dollar on Monday, is tracking close to its September average of $17.68 in the preceding period, meaning its impact on November’s fuel price equation should be minimal.

If the local currency remains close to its current level, it's likely that fuel price movements will remain subdued going into the new year and beyond, as Goldman Sachs said it expects crude oil prices to average around $76 in 2025 as the supply situation is expected to remain stable.

IOL