Who will succeed Cyril Ramaphosa? Motsepe emerges as a surprising front-runner in the ANC race

The race to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa as the leader of the ANC has burst wide open, with fresh polling revealing a volatile field that includes surprise entries and a non-candidate billionaire leading the charge. 

The intensifying succession talk has overshadowed this week’s ANC National General Council (NGC) meeting, even as party officials insist there is no leadership battle.

The NGC meeting at Birchwood conference centre this week marked the start of the final phase of Ramaphosa’s presidency, with the party's elective conference scheduled for 2027.

According to reports, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) conducted a national poll to gauge the public mood indicating a closely contested race. 

While deputy president Paul Mashatile and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula remain the most frequently mentioned contenders, the SRF poll has delivered a shock front-runner, businessman and soccer boss, Patrice Motsepe.

Despite having publicly declared he will not stand, the billionaire and president of the Confederation of African Football (CAF)—was included in the polls due to suggestions he could be persuaded by his backers to contest the 2027 ANC elective conference. 

The recent SRF poll highlights a split between general voters and ANC supporters regarding leadership preference within the ANC.

The poll shows Motsepe leading Mashatile among general voters by five percentage points. 

While the general electorate favors Motsepe over Mashatile by five percentage points, the preference within the ANC voter base is different.

Among ANC voters, Mbalula leads Mashatile by 15%.

The contest, according to senior members of the ANC who were at the NGC, has also seen the emergence of new, high-profile candidates. 

The ANC Women’s League's push for the party's first female president has brought forward ANC Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane and National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza as contenders.

While the two leaders had not yet confirmed that they would be contesting, insiders are adamant that the two were vying for the top job.

However, Mokonyane's serious involvement in the Bosasa scandal, as detailed in the State Capture Commission's findings, adds further complexity to her current situation.

Didiza, who has reportedly garnered support from senior leaders including President Ramaphosa, is seen as a reform candidate.  

Another figure entering the fray is the Electricity minister in the presidency, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who has reportedly put his hand up for either party president or deputy president.

The succession discourse comes at a sensitive time for the party, which is grappling with its loss of a majority in the 2024 general elections and is attempting to enact internal renewal. 

This week’s NGC saw a smaller ANC, with the party's paid-up membership plummeting to just over 540,000 from 1.4 million in 2020, according to the party.

The party's organisational report presented at the NGC included extensive self-criticism, noting with regret that the "era of state capture... resulted in an unprecedented decline in state capacity and public trust."

Despite the clamour, senior party figures are attempting to dampen the speculation. 

ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe said  that succession talk is "premature," saying he was not going to be contesting citing his age.

“I’m more than 70 years old. I’m retiring.” 

Similarly, Electricity minister Ramokgopa declined to comment on a potential bid, focusing instead on his current portfolio: 

“Let’s focus on electricity. There is discipline in the ANC. Those conversations will come later,” he reportedly said.

[email protected]