The Oval Office theatrics reconfigured the 1945 Transatlantic Order

By Zamikhaya Maseti

The theatrics that played out in the Oval Office on February 28, 2025, during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit, will be remembered as a defining moment in global politics. The dramatic episode laid bare the deepening fractures within Western alliances and further exposed the transactional, unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s foreign policy.

His attempts to strong-arm and gaslight Zelensky into a minerals-for-aid deal—an effort to recoup the USD 350 billion that Joe Biden handed over to Ukraine—fell flat, with Zelensky refusing to budge without military guarantees. Instead of isolating Ukraine, Trump’s blunder only galvanised Western European allies, who rallied in support of Kyiv at the March 2 Summit.

The outcome of that summit—a four-point plan emphasising continued military and economic support for Ukraine, plus a UK commitment of £1.6 billion in export financing for air defense—signals a deeper entrenchment of divisions in global geopolitics. Most significantly, the summit in London exposed the cracks within the 1945 Transatlantic Order—a global structure that has shaped international relations for nearly eight decades. The global power shift is undeniable, and we are witnessing the gradual collapse of the Western-centric global order that has long dictated world affairs.

What remains to be seen is how Trump’s transactional diplomacy—his attempt to strong-arm and gaslight Zelensky—will ultimately shape the geopolitical landscape. Will it favour Vladimir Putin by weakening Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances, or will it backfire by forcing Ukraine and its European allies to forge an even stronger coalition, independent of US influence?

Putin himself must acknowledge both his objective and subjective weaknesses. When he moved into Ukraine, he did not declare war; he called it a military operation, expecting it to last only a few weeks or months. Yet, three years later, the conflict rages on, and Russia has not emerged unscathed. While Zelensky is undeniably weakening, the reality remains that he mounted a counteroffensive for three full years, with the backing of NATO and Western allies.

The toll on Russia is undeniable—its soldiers and citizens are fatigued, the region is destabilized, and the global economy has suffered. The world was only beginning to recover from the ravages of COVID-19 when this war erupted, disrupting supply chains and sending food prices skyrocketing.

The war’s end would benefit not just Ukraine and Russia but economies across the world that have borne the brunt of its ripple effects. Trump's failure to secure a minerals-for-aid deal has demonstrated that coercive diplomacy has its limits, especially when it is clear that the U.S. is no longer the reliable hegemon it once was.

Zelensky, for his part, has emerged from the crisis exhibiting strategic ambiguity. Following the March 5 London Summit, he publicly stated that Ukraine continues to work closely with the Allied Forces—who are clearly advancing their strategy without America—yet he still insists on maintaining ties with Washington. This contradiction raises critical questions: Is Zelensky hedging his bets in anticipation of shifting U.S. policy in the future, or is he attempting to maintain a fragile balance between European solidarity and the fading but still influential role of the US? Either way, his stance reflects the complex and rapidly evolving realignment of global power structures.

This moment is not just about Ukraine; it marks a decisive shift in global power configurations, where new economic blocs are asserting themselves. However, it is crucial to be clear that the G20 is not an alternative to US hegemony, as it includes the very Western allies that have historically maintained global economic dominance. The U.S. remains a member, even if Trump has chosen to boycott it. What South Africa must do is strengthen its economic and trade relations with other G20 member states while strategically isolating the U.S.

First and foremost, we must break free from the long-standing myth that America’s economic influence is indispensable. The United States contributes a mere 7.5% to global GDP growth. Compare that to the collective contribution of BRICS and the G20 member states, which together drive the overwhelming majority of global economic expansion. The idea that South Africa’s economic fate hinges on America is an outdated colonial mindset that must be discarded with urgency.

The G20, comprising 19 countries and the European Union, dominates the global economic landscape. Collectively, G20 nations account for approximately 85% of global GDP and 75% of international trade. This highlights their central role in shaping global economic policies.

The BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has significantly expanded its economic footprint. As of recent data, BRICS nations contribute around 26% of global GDP, which increases to 29% with the inclusion of new members such as Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This growing economic influence places BRICS in a formidable position to counter Western economic dominance.

Meanwhile, Africa’s total GDP remains a smaller but vital part of the global economy, with South Africa contributing approximately $373 billion and Egypt $347.6 billion. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with its potential to unify a market of 1.3 billion people and a combined GDP exceeding $3.4 trillion, presents an untapped economic force that could propel the continent toward self-sufficiency.

The United States remains a significant trading partner for South Africa. In 2022, bilateral trade between the two countries totaled $18.35 billion, with U.S. exports to South Africa amounting to $10.47 billion and imports from South Africa at $7.8 billion. The expiration of AGOA next year and Trump’s hostility toward multilateral trade agreements put this relationship at risk.

Should the US choose to reduce its economic engagement with South Africa, the repercussions could be significant, particularly for industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, which rely heavily on US markets. Job losses and economic slowdowns in these sectors are real threats. However, dependency on a single economic partner is a vulnerability that must be addressed.

Trump’s regime-change Executive Orders targeting South Africa should be the final wake-up call. We must actively seek new markets for both exports and imports. Our traditional overreliance on Western trade partners must be replaced with a more balanced and strategically diversified approach. The BRICS alliance offers a massive economic ecosystem that South Africa has yet to fully leverage. China, India, Russia, and Brazil collectively present a vast consumer and industrial base.

Additionally, deeper economic partnerships with ASEAN countries, Latin America, and the Middle East must be aggressively pursued. Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are rapidly industrializing and provide lucrative trade opportunities in energy, technology, and manufacturing. Why continue looking West when the Global South is surging ahead?

South Africa’s economic future is African. The AfCFTA is a game-changer, offering access to a market of 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of over $3.4 trillion. Yet, our trade with Africa remains shockingly low. We export more to Europe than we do to our own continent—an absurdity that must be corrected.

The AfCFTA allows us to replace European and American imports with African alternatives, keeping wealth within the continent and driving industrialization. This is where our focus must be—building manufacturing hubs, enhancing cross-border trade infrastructure, and ensuring that South African companies dominate intra-African commerce.

South Africa is at a historic juncture. The global order is shifting, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind. The dominance of Western economic structures is fading, and the rise of new economic powerhouses within BRICS and the G20 provides South Africa with unparalleled opportunities.

We cannot afford to hesitate. We must act decisively to secure new trade partnerships, expand our footprint in African markets, and take full advantage of our leadership in the G20. The Old-World Order is crumbling, and a new one is emerging. The only question remains: Will South Africa be a leader in this transformation or a bystander clinging to outdated loyalties?

The choice is ours to make.

*Zamikhaya Maseti is a Political Economy Analyst and holds a Magister Philosophiae (M.Phil.) in South African Politics and Political Economy from the erstwhile University of Port Elizabeth (UPE) now Nelson Mandela University.

**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.