The fall of a liberation giant: Can the ANC survive its existential crisis?

Africa's oldest liberation movement stands at the precipice of an unthinkable fate: financial liquidation. The African National Congress, which led South Africa from apartheid's darkness into democratic dawn, now faces creditors, internal fractures, and an electorate that has delivered its harshest verdict yet.

The ANC's current predicament represents a stunning reversal of fortune. The party that once commanded overwhelming electoral majorities secured just 40.18% in the May 2024 national elections — its worst performance since democracy began in 1994. This political decline has been accompanied by severe financial distress, with reports emerging that the party owes millions to service providers and faces possible liquidation proceedings.

The roots of this crisis are manifold. Endemic corruption, most notably the "state capture" scandal under former President Jacob Zuma, haemorrhages billions from state coffers while enriching a connected elite. The party created a new class of "tenderpreneurs"—politically connected millionaires and billionaires who profited from government contracts, often through unethical or illegal means.

At the helm sits President Cyril Ramaphosa, himself a billionaire businessman who amassed wealth through investments in mining, telecommunications, and other sectors. His rise to ANC leadership was marked by controversy: his 2017 campaign for party presidency allegedly cost over R1 billion, raising questions about the sources and expectations attached to such funding. 

The 2020 "Farmgate" scandal, in which millions of dollars were reportedly discovered hidden at his Phala Phala farm, further complicated his reformist image.

This presents a profound contradiction: a wealthy president leading an essentially bankrupt party, unable or unwilling to rescue it financially. Critics have seized on this, with some suggesting—though without definitive proof—that Ramaphosa's presidency represents not salvation but managed decline, perhaps even deliberate dismantling.

"How can a billionaire president watch the party of Mandela face liquidation?" asks political analyst Dr Lwazi Lushaba. "Either he lacks the will, or there are deeper forces at play preventing him from acting."

The government Ramaphosa leads faces its own financial crisis. South Africa's national debt has ballooned to approximately R5.2 trillion (roughly $280 billion), with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching around 75%—significantly higher than the 60% threshold considered prudent for emerging markets. Annual debt service costs now consume over 21% of government revenue, exceeding spending on health or education.

This debt burden has accumulated through years of fiscal mismanagement, bailouts for dysfunctional state-owned enterprises like Eskom (the electricity utility), and sluggish economic growth averaging below 1% annually over the past decade.

Some ANC defenders point to external forces, noting the bitter historical relationship with Washington. The Reagan administration labelled the ANC a "terrorist organisation" during the Cold War, and tensions persist over South Africa's non-aligned foreign policy, particularly its refusal to condemn Russia's Ukraine invasion and its support for Palestinian statehood.

Recent U.S. trade pressures and potential expulsion from preferential trade programs like AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) have been interpreted by some as efforts to punish or destabilise the ANC government. However, most analysts dismiss grand conspiracy theories.

"The West doesn't need to destroy the ANC—the ANC is perfectly capable of destroying itself," says international relations expert Professor Hussein Solomon. "Corruption, factionalism, and incompetence are homegrown problems, not CIA operations."

Political Reforms:

• Leadership renewal: A generational change removing compromised figures and installing technocratic, corruption-free leadership
• Internal democratisation: Ending "cadre deployment" and the toxic slate politics that entrenches factions
• Coalition governance: Learning to genuinely share power in the current Government of National Unity (GNU) with the Democratic Alliance and other parties
• Ideological clarity: Reconnecting with the Freedom Charter's principles while adapting policy to 21st-century realities

Economic Solutions:

• Party funding reform: Mandatory transparency in campaign financing and strict limits on donations
• Asset recovery: Aggressive pursuit of corrupt proceeds through Asset Forfeiture Unit actions
• Membership revival: Genuine grassroots mobilisation rather than reliance on wealthy donors
• State support restructuring: Renegotiating political party funding formulas to ensure stability

The fundamental question may be whether the ANC remains relevant. Liberation movements across Africa — from ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe to FRELIMO in Mozambique — have struggled with the transition from revolutionary vanguard to modern democratic party. Many ossify, becoming vehicles for patronage rather than national development.

South African voters, particularly the youth born after apartheid, show declining attachment to liberation credentials. They demand service delivery, jobs, and accountability—not historical nostalgia. The rise of populist alternatives like the Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe Party demonstrates this shift.

The ANC's current crisis is existential in ways that transcend mere financial troubles. Liquidation proceedings might be resolved through emergency measures, but the deeper bankruptcy — of ideas, integrity, and public trust — cannot be solved with cash injections.

The ghosts of Luthuli, Tambo, Mandela, and Sisulu loom large. These architects of liberation built a movement on principles of non-racialism, democracy, and human dignity. Their successors have too often betrayed that inheritance for personal enrichment.

Whether this is the "final nail in the coffin" depends on choices made now. The ANC could reform radically, purge corruption, and reinvent itself as a modern social-democratic party. Alternatively, it could follow the path of other liberation movements into irrelevance, preserved only by residual loyalty among ageing supporters.

History suggests liberation movements rarely reform themselves. They are typically replaced by new formations better suited to contemporary challenges. South Africa's democracy appears robust enough to survive — and perhaps requires — the ANC's decline.

The tragedy is not that a political party might fail. Political parties come and go. The tragedy is that the ANC's decay has damaged the state institutions, the economy, and the social fabric of a nation that deserved better from those who promised them freedom.

Anda Mbikwana is a PhD candidate and a municipal finance and leadership in governance expert, writing in his personal capacity.