Attendance drops sharply in late secondary school, prompting education experts to explore AI as a tool for early intervention.
Image: Supplied
Artificial intelligence is increasingly being explored in South African schools as a tool to identify struggling learners before disengagement becomes permanent. While matric pass rates have hit record highs, experts warn that this masks a deeper dropout problem that begins years earlier in the schooling journey.
Of the 1.2 million learners who started Grade 1 in 2014, only about 778 000 reached matric in 2025, according to education statistics. Attendance is nearly universal up to age 15 (96.2%) but drops to 64.3% by age 18, the typical matric exit age, the General Household Survey 2024 reports. Just over 60% of learners complete Grade 12 and obtain the National Senior Certificate, according to the Department of Basic Education’s Grade Promotion, Repetition and Dropping Out 2018 - 2021 report.
Experts say schools often intervene too late. Typically, support is triggered by exam failures, disciplinary issues, or visible signs of disengagement. Teachers may spot early warning signs such as falling grades or inconsistent participation, but they often lack the specialist training or tools to respond effectively.
“The challenge is less about awareness and more about knowing how to respond effectively,” said Mark Anderson, co-founder and principal of Koa Academy. “Learner attrition typically occurs well before the matric year. Yet intervention often relies on exam failures or visible disengagement. We’re missing students long before that.”
AI-based systems can help by analysing large amounts of real-time learning data alongside teacher observations. These models track attendance, performance, engagement, and other indicators to flag learners who may need support before problems escalate. “AI changes how we design and deliver support, ensuring the right people connect with learners sooner and more meaningfully,” Anderson said. Feedback from the 2025 AI in Education Forum noted that such approaches can shorten the gap between recognising a problem and taking action.
“Strong student support isn't just beneficial - it's transformative. It builds intellectual security so learners embrace risks and persist through challenges; it boosts engagement and leads to improved academic outcomes, as University of Amsterdam research confirms; safeguards mental health and curbs risk behaviours per the 2023 CDC study and fosters self-regulation through metacognition, according to the Education Endowment Foundation,” Anderson added.