North-south derbies are unpredictable but Bulls bully boys should tame Stormers at Loftus Versfeld

Bulls coach Johan Ackermann has been around the rugby block too many times to read anything into the good form of his team and the poor form of the Stormers ahead of their north-south derby, where, historically, the form book gets tossed over the back of the grandstand.

A good example of this is the first round derby between these sides in Cape Town. The Stormers were top of the log and playing great rugby while the Bulls were in the middle of a miserable streak, yet they almost won a tight game (13-8).

“It’s a big challenge. Traditionally, it’s a great derby that goes way back. Some of the best players in the country are always involved. It’s a big privilege,” Ackermann said of Saturday’s big clash in Pretoria.

“Stats-wise, the Stormers have one of the best set-pieces in the competition: their lineout, maul and scrum, plus there is a lot at stake for both teams, which adds to the intensity.”

A look at the teams announced on Friday suggests a slight advantage for the Bulls in the starting lineups, but the Bulls have a strong edge among the replacements. Ackermann will introduce five current Springboks, while the Stormers bench has no national players.

“We’re really blessed in that we only have Stravino (Jacobs) and Akker (van der Merwe) out, the rest of the squad is all selectable,” he said.

“It gives us a bit of continuity, and hopefully we’ll see that on the field, but we saw in the Six Nations that if you don’t perform on the day, you don’t get the result. So even though we’ve got this valuable continuity, we still have to perform, and we’ve seen over the years how close local derbies are.”

Ackermann is right about SA derbies being difficult to predict. Earlier this season, few would have predicted that the Lions would win the SA Shield or that the Sharks would twice beat the Stormers.

Looking specifically at the north-south rivalry, predictions get more complex, still.

In the URC, the Bulls have beaten the Stormers only twice. The Stormers have also won two high-pressure play-off games (the 2022 final and the 2023 quarter-final). That makes it nine Stormers wins to two.

Giving the Capetonians yet more encouragement is the uncomfortable reality for the Bulls of having won just one of four URC games against the Stormers played at Loftus Versfeld.

The unpredictable nature of the north-south derbies can also make a mockery of momentum. The Bulls have won four in a row, the Stormers have lost three in a row, but the latter team will be reminding themselves that their run to the 2022 title began with an upset defeat of the Bulls at Loftus.

Still, when you look at the Bulls tight five of Ruan Nortje, Ruan Vermaak, Wilco Louw, Johan Grobbelaar, and Gerhard Steenekamp, with Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Alulutho Tshakweni, Mornay Smith, and Cobus Wiese spearheading a bomb squad that also includes Nizaam Carr and Marco van Staden, the strong suspicion is that the Stormers set piece that Ackermann was talking up will come under serious pressure.

The Bulls' loose trio of Jeandre Rudolph, Elrigh Lou,w and Marcell Coetzee is similarly combative, and it would be a surprise if halfbacks Embrose Papier and Handre Pollard do not get superior quality possession to Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Stefan Ungerer.

And if this comes to pass, and space opens up the Bulls' back division to attack, the points could rack up quickly — Dave Kriel, Sebastian de Klerk, Canan Moodie, and Kurt-Lee Arendse are among the best in the business.

TEAMS

15 David Kriel, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Jeandre Rudolph, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Marcell Coetzee (capt), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.

Bench: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Alulutho Tshakweni, 18 Mornay Smith, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Paul de Wet, 23 Willie le Roux.

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Suleiman Hartzenberg, 13 Ruhan Nel (captain), 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Marcel Theunissen, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Deon Fourie, 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Adré Smith, 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Ntuthuko Mchunu.

Bench: 16 JJ Kotzé, 17 Vernon Matongo, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Paul de Villiers, 20 Hacjivah Dayimani, 21 Imad Khan, 22 Jonathan Roche, 23 Wandisile Simelane.